Pandemic Predictor

James Scott applies statistical expertise in the fight against the coronavirus

Rising coronavirus deaths in Texas. That’s what IROM Professor James Scott of the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas at Austin began expecting back in May. Scott had co-developed a statistical model to forecast COVID-19 mortality in all 50 U.S. states and dozens of metro areas, examining social distancing behaviors using anonymized geolocation data from tens of millions of cellphones. And he could see the danger increasing after Texas began relaxing its restrictions on businesses and public gatherings. “It’s like Bob Dylan said: You don’t need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows,” he told National Geographic. For his expertise, Scott has also been quoted in Bloomberg and NPR, and the model has been provided to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the White House Coronavirus Task Force. His work is proof of the real-world, life-or-death role statistics can play during a pandemic.

This article appeared in the winter 2020 issue of McCombs magazine. Click on the link to see the full issue.